Written off by many punters who bet on racing after being beaten into third in last season’ King George VI Chase and Gold before pulling up on his final outing of the season at Punchestown, Kauto Star has returned to the fray this season arguably as good as he s ever been in twice handing out a beating to the last year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Long Run.

Assumed to be the fitter of the two when scoring by eight-lengths in a highly emotional Betfair Chase on his first outing of the term at Haydock in November, the Clive Smith-owned French bred gelding put up another astounding performance when again proving good for the five years young current champion in landing the King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day for the fifth time in his career, beating Long Run by a length-and-a-half.

Nicholls cannot believe just how well the old boy is at present and reports him to have put on weight since the Kempton contest and to be working with as much, if not more zest than ever before. The Ditcheat handler also observes that in his opinion Kauto star has never looked better in his coat and that despite sub-zero temperatures the horse is itching to get out on the gallops and prepare for his next outing.

Bookmakers rate Long Run the favourite to score at Cheltenham at 5/2 but horse racing tips are also backing Kauto Star,(who was as big as 20/1 for the race at the start of the season), who is now a rock solid 4/1 second favourite to make yet more history by winning back the title he first landed in 2007 and won again in 2009.

Those looking at Cheltenham Festival Odds should note that the jockey will spend up to six weeks on the sidelines, which is far from ideal so close to the Festival, but his agent has stated that there should still be enough time for a full recovery.

Acting as Carberry’s agent at this time, Theresa O’Toole said: “He rang me on Thursday to tell me, it’s awful luck. He’ll be out for four to six weeks, but he’ll be back flying by the time Cheltenham comes around.”

“It’s rotten luck, but he’s used to bouncing back. It’s not as if he’s a novice on the slopes either, he’s a very accomplished skier.”

Many have questioned whether going skiing just a couple of months before the Festival was a good idea, but Carberry is an experienced jockey and will hope to prove his fitness over the next few weeks.

Elsewhere, trainer Paul Nolan has spoken of his hope that Adams Island will put in a positive performance in the Goffs Thyestes Handicap Chase at Gowran Park on Thursday.

Nolan said: “He ran a good race in Leopardstown, he ran to his mark. He probably hasn’t got much in hand regards his mark because it’s based on him being second to Captain Chris at Kempton last winter.”

“Hopefully, he’ll run a nice race.”

Sports betting pundits note how there is certainly a lot going on in the world of horse racing at the moment and it is a positive that the weather hasn’t prevented too much racing so far.

Let’s just hope the snow is out of the way or holds off until after the Cheltenham Festival!

In the Betfred Classic Chase over 3m5f at Warwick on Saturday afternoon, bookmakers are all reporting good business ahead of the this cracking handicap chase at Warwick on Saturday and all have confirmed the David Pipe entry, Sona Sasta, as the favourite with odds of around the 6/1 mark.

With Colin Tizzards 156 rated Hey Big Spender in the race it will mean that six of the declared 14 runners will race out of the handicap. The 9 year old will carry 11st 12lb fully 10lbs more than any of his rivals, but notwithstanding, Tizzard is still bullish about his chances and believes he will run a big race.

Sona Sasta was last seen in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas where he ran disappointingly, finishing well off the pace in 12^th place. It was particularly disappointing for Pipe who had been very pleased with his run when second behind subsequent Welsh National winner, Le Beau Bai at Chepstow three weeks earlier. Pipe now hopes that Sona Sasta can return to the form of this time 12 months ago when he won two 3 mile handicaps within the space of nine days.

Just behind Sona Sasta in the betting with odds of 13/2 is the Brian Ellison entry Neptune Equester who won a decent looking handicap over 3m4f at Haydock last November and has followed that up with a fifth place finish in the valuable Grade 3 Meyrick Handicap Chase at Wetherby on Boxing Day. He comes into the race on a decent mark and should be good enough to get himself in the mix at the business end of the race.

Major Malarkey who will be one of those racing outside of the handicap is being well supported currently in the market. An 8/1 shot at present, he is one of two entries from the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard and will be ridden by Paddy Brennan, while the other, Hello Bud, now being campaigned as a 14 year old will be the ride of son, Sam Twiston-Davies.

Having bolted up in the Totetrifecta Handicap Chase at Hereford in December, the Charlie Longsdon trained Strongbows Legend fell in the Sussex National after being the subject of a huge gamble on the day. He is being backed to win this race too on Saturday and being out of the handicap he must be in with big chances if he can reproduce top form.

The one we like for this is the Alan King trained Blazing Bailey who struggled with the pace in the recent Welsh National in which he was eventually pulled up. However on his day he can prove his class and King believes that this former World Hurdle Champion is bang in form for this race, and good enough to provide a third successive win of this race for King. The sponsors report plenty of interest in the ten year old and have shortened him to 9/1 in their market.

The testing conditions and the length of the trip has made this a trial for many Grand National hopefuls down the years and it would be no surprise to see any of these that emerge from this race on the back of promising runs head to Aintree in April.

The Lanzorote Hurlde at Kempton looks an extremely open race with many in with chances. However, we like the look of Dr Richard Newland’s runner, Act Of Kalanisi a two time winner over hurdles and who was thought good enough to take his chances in Graded company earlier this season.

Now six years old, this horse still has plenty of promise and h is from a yard that regularly upsets the odds in big handicap races.

This makes horse racing markets very similar to financial markets and even the termination of pre-race betting due to the race starting can be likened to financial instruments like options and futures which have expiry dates. On the betting exchanges then this is where getting a good tissue price can be advantageous because the odds rarely stay the same. If you have a really good tissue then this can highlight value with both backing and laying and this is an area that I think any punter should look to get into.

If you do not know how to compile a tissue and let’s face it few of us do, then you can avail yourself of a good tissue price in areas like the Racing Post for example. In fact one such method can be to cross reference several respected tissues at once to find a “super tissue” which can be used as a template to attempt to find value on the betting exchanges. You will see that this has very little to do with the older conventional analysis of form and looks to use form study in a slightly different way.

At the end of the day you do not want to be locking horns with industry professionals in areas there they are at their strongest. As always, your biggest option as a punter is your ability not to bet and to be selective. This in principle is the same as a poker player who folds all of their poor hands and waits for good opportunities.

Speaking of poker, Carl “The Dean” Sampson plays his poker at www.pokerstars.co.uk

Although the Paul Nicholls-trained Neptune Collonges is on a 3lbs higher mark at the top of the current list of declarations for the marathon three-mile-five furlong slog around the Welsh countryside, the champion trainer has made it clear that the horse is almost certainly going to be targeted at the Lexus Chase in Ireland instead leaving Tizzard’s charge to head the weights for one of the main horse racing betting  events of the Christmas racing period.

Hey Big Spender has never raced as far as he will be asked to travel at Chepstow but certainly gives the impression that staying is very much the name of the game for him having won in desperate ground at Carlisle last season over three-miles-one furlong and stayed on over three-and-a-half-miles to be fourth on his seasonal bow this term behind Galaxy Rock in a Grade 3 handicap at Cheltenham in November.

More recently the horse trained down in the West country made the long journey north to Newcastle pay handsome dividends by giving 22lbs and a length-and-a-quarter beating to The Hollinwell in the listed At the Races Rehearsal Chase, a performances that had ‘Welsh National’ written all over it. Tizzard is worried about asking his stable star to carry so much weight in likely very testing conditions over an extreme distance but accepts that if you are officially the best performer in the line-up then there is no shirking the matter.

For those who bet on racing  Hey Big Spender is currently rated at around 14/1 to provide his handler with a high profile success in the feature Chepstow contest. He is equally capable should the going prove faster than is the norm for the time of year having won in the past on good and good to soft going.

Already twice a winner from three starts this season, Prospect Wells is one of those select few Graham Wylie owned horses that has moved south to the yard of Paul Nicholls from the now defunct yard of Howard Johnson operation. The six year old has it seems, progressed nicely at Ditcheat, and although he had to be content with second place in the Grade 2 Sharp Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham last month, he put up a good show against the winner, Steps To Freedom, who is the current antepost favourite for the Supreme Novices Hurdle. Prospect Wells is currently the 7/2 favourite to win Saturday’s race.

Next best in the market is the Nicky Henderson trained representative, Gibb  River, with odds of 9/1. Henderson of course has saddled three winners of this race in the last ten years including the last two, Sentry Duty in 2008 and Jack The Giant in 2007. Gibb River seemed to have made the transition from the flat to hurdles last season with absolute aplomb, winning three times on the bounce in non-pattern races. However he was clearly outclassed in the Supreme Novices Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival back in March and was also beaten into third place, first time out this season in a Listed race at Sandown a fortnight ago. He should improve for that run and now in handicap company, he has to be in with a decent chance.

Following his excellent effort last week in the Grade 2 International Hurdle at Cheltenham over 2m5f, the Paul Nicholls first string entry, Brampour, despite carrying top weight, should have enough class about him to get close. The 10/1 shot was beaten into third place in the ‘International’ by  the very classy Grandouet and the hugely improved Overturn but as only a four year he has to be given great credit.

Based on his second place behind Steps To Freedom at Punchestown in October, the Edward O’Grady trained Sailors Warn has to be in with a big chance, despite only being 12//1 in the market. He was only 1¾  lengths behind Steps To Freedom in that race and came up against another ‘good thing’ Unaccompanied from the Dermot Weld stable next time in a Listed race over 2 miles at Naas. He was beaten three lengths in that but the winner is a hugely classy novice who was second behind the brilliant Zarkandar in the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham back in March.

Sailors Warn would appear to have a better chance than the other 12/1 shot in the race, Raya Star from the Alan King yard, who finished third last time out in a Listed race over 2m1f at Newbury, beaten in that race by over ten lengths by winner, Rock On Ruby. However the five year old is well in at the weights and is from a stable that has been extremely consistent lately.

The one preferred for each way purposes is the Dr Richard Newland entry, Act Of Kalanisi, last seen running into third place in the Grade 2 Elite Hurdle at Wincanton just over a month ago. Dr Newland as we all know has a great knack of getting his horses in the picture in big handicap races. There was no better example of this than last weekend when he landed a big handicap chase at Cheltenham with Night Alliance. Act Of Kalanisi won a very nice Class 2 handicap last February at Ascot and looks like he has been trained to win this in similar fashion on Saturday. With odds of 25/1 he has to be a decent each prospect.

Although having gone up 8lbs in the handicap, the Donald McCain trained Desert Cry has to be respected. He incurred the penalty due to his win at Haydock last month but McCain did not think that he would win that race and therefore believes that he will improve for the run. It is dangerous these days to omit any McCain horse from the thinking, particularly in races such as this and with odds of 14/1 he is quite a temptation to back!

On the back of his easy victory over Champion Court bookmakers understandably ran for cover and slashed the odds about the David Pipe-trained grey to best racing odds of 4/1 favourite to win the three-mile RSA Chase (the ‘novices Gold Cup’) at the Cheltenham Festival in March, the Dom Alco gelding having proved on a number of occasions last term that he was the only horse in the country with the class and ability to make a race of it with the outstanding Big Buck’s at that trip over timbers, finishing second to the champion staying hurdler at both the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals.

After destroying his rivals over two-miles-five-furlongs on his chasing bow, Grand Crus’ jockey, Tom Scudamore, was not slow to mention that in his opinion the horse would not be found wanting over the minimum trip of two miles, hinting that the option of going down the Arkle Chase route shouldn’t be completely ruled out. Although he raced just a couple of times over the minimum trip over hurdles, it’s worth noting that Grand Crus gave 16lbs and ran the subsequently 150-rated Cheltenham Festival and Scottish Champion Hurdle winner Sanctuaire to just four-lengths in a Taunton novice hurdle in February 2010, a run that proves he has the speed to mix it at a high level over the bare minimum trip.

It’s well known that to win the Arkle you need a horse that can see out up to two-and-a-half miles (especially if the ground is testing), so those who bet on racing should bear this in mind and possibly hedge their bets in case Pipe decides to heed Scudamore’s words and have a change of direction with this potentially top-class chaser.

But trip he did, falling very heavily, whilst Overturn, who jumped perfectly throughout the 2½ mile race, went on to win by a massive 27 lengths from the Nick Williams trained, For Non Stop, with the 2008 Champion Hurdler, Katchit, a further 20 lengths back in third place.

The win marks another impressive entry onto the resume of the seven year old Overturn, who has big race wins on both the flat and over jumps. Included on his record are wins in both the Welsh and Scottish Champion Hurdle as well as the 2010 Galway Hurdle in Ireland and has also enjoyed wins on the flat, landing the 2010 Northumberland Plate and the 2011 Chester Cup earlier this year. Whilst there is little doubt that he is a little short of top class, this son of Barathea who has now earned a huge £495,000 of prize money for his owner, Tim Leslie and looks a very good prospect over this longer 2½ mile trip and possibly further.  Certainly the stable believe that there is a lot more to come from him and they might be tempted to run him in the Grade One Fighting Fifth Hurdle as early as this coming Saturday at Newcastle.

As far as Oscar Whisky is concerned, Henderson and jockey, Barry Geraghty were very pleased with his performance. He was giving 8lbs to Overturn and had the race all but won before the tumble at the last. Henderson has not plotted a course for this season as yet for Oscar Whisky but the Champion Hurdle, in which he finished third last season, would appear to be one target but he may be worth trying at the longer trip and a tilt at taking on Big Bucks in the Ladbrokes World Hurdle over three miles at the Festival cannot be world out.